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Summary
Zero COVID strategy better protects the health
The G10 countries are far more affected by the pandemic in
all aspects than the OECD countries that have opted for the Zero COVID strategy
or similar, a representative benchmark of 82 million inhabitants of
economically advanced democracies.
The number of deaths per million inhabitants was 44 times
higher in the G10 countries, which means 1.1 million too many deaths by June
30, 2021. Economic performance, civil liberties and mobility were also worse.
Zero COVID strategy benefits the economy and accelerates
recoveries
In 2020, the countries applying the Zero COVID strategy had
almost returned to normal economic activity. Their GDP was down only slightly
(-1.6%) compared to 2019. Meanwhile, the decline in GDP was greater (-5%) in
G10 countries that had not eradicated the virus.
Zero COVID is a cost-effective economic investment with
lasting positive effects. In the second quarter of 2021, the GDP of the Zero COVID
countries grew compared to the fourth quarter of 2019 (+1.7%). In the countries
that did not eradicate the virus, GDP decline remained significant compared to
the fourth quarter of 2019 (-1%).
Zero COVID strategy preserves freedoms more effectively
The Zero COVID strategy costs less in terms of civil
liberties. An analysis of the data that make up the Stringency Index indicates
a clear advantage for the Zero COVID countries over the other G10 countries in
terms of freedom.
Conversely, the stop-and-go alternate in the G10 countries,
a consequence of the virus mitigation strategy, leads to a periodic
retrenchment of freedoms, reflecting measures to contain the pandemic. As long
as the virus continues to spread, freedoms are going to be restricted. This
entails a proliferation of moral problems, with isolation and a deterioration
in the care of the elderly and of unprotected children exposed to the spread of
the virus in schools, as well as tensions with people unwilling or unable to be
vaccinated.
Zero COVID strategy preserves everyday mobility more
effectively
Mobility data from Google show that “workplace” traffic in
2020 and 2021 fell by less in the countries applying the Zero COVID strategy
(-10%). This was a much smaller decline than G10 countries applying a
mitigation strategy (down 26%).
Google data show that traffic in “cafés, restaurants,
hotels, non-food businesses and leisure and cultural activities in general” was
down by 11% in 2020 and 2021. This was a much smaller decline than in the countries
applying a mitigation strategy (down 22%).
Zero COVID strategy helps control uncertainty
Cross-referencing of quarterly economic and health data
confirms the superiority of the elimination strategy in terms of anticipation.
People in those countries benefit from a level of visibility enabling them to
project their societies and economies into the future.
In contrast, the course taken by the G10 countries has
produced fluctuations, with the epidemic rebounding periodically. The
mitigation strategy is causing them to seesaw, making it difficult to The Zero COVID
strategy continues to protect people, economies and freedoms more effectively project
into the future and thereby penalizing societies and economies. This is
especially problematic for businesses that depend on significant social
interaction, like hotel, restaurant, culture, transport, and recreation sectors.
The contrast between islands confirms the superiority of Zero COVID. The contrast is especially stark between Commonwealth islands applying the Zero COVID strategy (Australia, New Zealand) or the mitigation strategy (United Kingdom).
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