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After the short, sharp shock of Omicron, the pandemic phase of COVID-19 looks to be ending for most locations, unless a significant and severe new variant emerges. This update discusses what we’ve learned from Omicron, the prospects for the rest of 2022, and presents three potential criteria for defining COVID-19 as endemic.  The article also shares possible scenarios for new dominant variants of COVID-19. 

Endemic COVID-19 does not mean that the disease poses no risk. Globally, we should aim for an “always on” response system that can scale quickly. And as we have written previously, every society must do four things to manage COVID-19 effectively during the endemic phase:

• Choose a holistic set of health, economic, and social markets that they are managing for
• Monitor and track progress against them in ways that allow for targeted response escalation when needed
• Limit disease through effective use of vaccines, therapeutics, and other countermeasures
• Slow transmission through testing and environmental/workplace modifications

Download the linked file to read the full article.